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Polymarket Multi Source Estimator

利用结合了十余种实时数据源（新闻、经济数据、体育赔率、政治民调等）的LLM概率估算，交易预测市场。

person作者: mibayyhubclawhub
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Multi-Source LLM Estimator

A prediction market trading bot that enriches an LLM with real-time context from 10+ data sources. It compares the LLM's estimated probability against the current market price and trades when it detects significant mispricing.

How It Works

10+ Data Sources --> Context String --> LLM Prompt --> Probability Estimate
                                                              |
                                                    Compare vs Market Price
                                                              |
                                              Trade if divergence > threshold
  1. Fetches active markets from Polymarket (via Simmer SDK)
  2. For each market, gathers real-time context from relevant data sources
  3. Also checks cross-platform prices on Manifold and Kalshi
  4. Sends the question + context to an LLM for probability estimation
  5. If the LLM's estimate diverges from the market price by more than the threshold (default 15%), it places a trade

Data Sources

| # | Source | What It Provides | API Key Required | |---|--------|-------------------|------------------| | 1 | RSS News | Headlines from 10 feeds (Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) | No | | 2 | FRED | Economic indicators (Fed rate, CPI, GDP, VIX, oil, gold) | Yes (free) | | 3 | GDELT | Geopolitical event sentiment scores | No | | 4 | Odds API | Sports bookmaker consensus probabilities | Yes (free tier) | | 5 | FiveThirtyEight | US presidential approval polling averages | No | | 6 | Congress.gov | Bill status and legislative tracking | Yes (free) | | 7 | OpenFDA | Drug approval status and clinical trial data | No | | 8 | Open-Meteo | Weather forecasts for major cities | No | | 9 | USGS | Significant earthquake data | No | | 10 | Finnhub | Earnings calendar and IPO data | Yes (free) | | 11 | Manifold | Cross-platform prediction market prices | No | | 12 | Kalshi | Cross-platform prediction market prices | No |

Sources are selected automatically based on category detection from the question text. Only relevant sources are queried to minimize latency.

Remixable Template

This skill is designed as a template you can customize:

  • Add your own data source: Implement a _get_X_context(question) function that returns a list[str] of context lines. Add it to _dispatch_sources().
  • Swap the LLM: Set LLM_API_URL and LLM_MODEL env vars to point at any OpenAI-compatible API (OpenRouter, Ollama, vLLM, etc.).
  • Adjust the threshold: Set ESTIMATOR_THRESHOLD higher for fewer but higher-conviction trades, or lower for more frequent trading.
  • Change the prompt: Edit the _build_prompt() function to customize the LLM's reasoning style.

Environment Variables

Required

| Variable | Description | |----------|-------------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Simmer SDK API key for trading | | LLM_API_KEY | API key for your LLM provider (default: OpenRouter) |

Optional

| Variable | Default | Description | |----------|---------|-------------| | TRADING_VENUE | sim | Trading venue (sim for paper, polymarket for real) | | TRADE_SIZE | 10.0 | Trade size in USD per trade | | LLM_API_URL | OpenRouter endpoint | OpenAI-compatible chat completions URL | | LLM_MODEL | xiaomi/mimo-v2-flash:free | Model identifier | | ESTIMATOR_THRESHOLD | 0.15 | Min divergence to trigger a trade (0.0-1.0) | | FRED_API_KEY | — | FRED API key (free at api.stlouisfed.org) | | ODDS_API_KEY | — | The Odds API key (free at the-odds-api.com) | | CONGRESS_API_KEY | — | Congress.gov API key (free) | | FINNHUB_API_KEY | — | Finnhub API key (free tier) | | LLM_CACHE_TTL | 1800 | LLM response cache TTL in seconds | | LLM_MAX_CALLS | 50 | Max LLM calls per run |

Usage

Dry-run (no trades, just log estimates):

python multi_source_estimator.py

Live trading:

python multi_source_estimator.py --live

Quiet mode (errors only):

python multi_source_estimator.py --live --quiet

Limit markets scanned:

python multi_source_estimator.py --live --max-markets 20

Scheduling

Runs every 5 minutes via cron (*/5 * * * *). Managed automaton (auto-executes on schedule). Capped at 50 LLM calls per run (LLM_MAX_CALLS) to control costs.

Security

  • All trades go through SimmerClient.trade() only. No direct CLOB or wallet access.
  • Dry-run by default. The --live flag must be explicitly passed to execute trades.
  • No wallet private keys are required or read by this script.
  • LLM receives only the market question text and publicly available context (news headlines, economic indicators, odds). No credentials or private data are sent to the LLM.
  • LLM_API_URL defaults to OpenRouter. You control which LLM endpoint is used.
  • All optional API keys (FRED, Odds, Congress, Finnhub) are for free public data APIs. If unset, those data sources are simply skipped.