Polymarket Spread Sniper

Buys the underpriced side when the Polymarket AMM price diverges from the live CLOB orderbook midpoint. No outcome prediction — pure spread arbitrage. Exits automatically via take-profit or time-stop.

The Edge

Polymarket has two pricing mechanisms:

1. AMM — pool-based price, slower to update
2. CLOB — live orderbook, reflects real-money conviction

When they diverge by more than min_edge (default 3%), the AMM is mispriced. The skill buys the cheap side and exits when prices converge or the time window closes.

Quick Start

export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...

# Dry run (SIM mode — safe, no real money)
python spread_sniper.py

# Live trading
python spread_sniper.py --live

# Show open positions with P&L
python spread_sniper.py --positions

# P&L summary (realized + unrealized)
python scripts/spread_pnl.py

# P&L history log
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --history

Configuration

All settings can be overridden via environment variables or tuned from the Simmer dashboard.

| Setting | Env Var | Default | Description | |---------|---------|---------|-------------| | Min edge | SIMMER_SPREAD_MIN_EDGE | 0.03 | Min AMM/CLOB divergence to trade (3%) | | Min volume | SIMMER_SPREAD_MIN_VOLUME | 5000 | Min 24h volume in USD | | Max position | SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_POSITION | 5.00 | Max USD per trade | | Max trades/run | SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_TRADES | 3 | Max new trades per scan | | Min price | SIMMER_SPREAD_MIN_PRICE | 0.10 | Never buy below 10¢ | | Max price | SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_PRICE | 0.90 | Never buy above 90¢ | | Max hours | SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_HOURS | 24 | Skip markets resolving >24h out | | Max CLOB spread | SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_CLOB_SPREAD | 0.05 | Skip illiquid books (bid-ask > 5¢) | | Daily spend cap | SIMMER_SPREAD_DAILY_MAX | 100.00 | Max USD deployed per day | | Take-profit | SIMMER_SPREAD_TP_PCT | 0.60 | Exit when 60% of entry edge captured | | Time-stop | SIMMER_SPREAD_TS_PCT | 0.50 | Exit when 50% of market window elapsed | | Market exclude | SIMMER_SPREAD_EXCLUDE | (68 keywords) | Comma-separated keywords to skip |

Exit Logic

Positions are checked on every scan:

• Take-profit: exits when CLOB has moved take_profit_pct × entry_edge toward fair value
• Time-stop: exits when time_stop_pct of the market's remaining window has elapsed since entry, or when <2h left regardless

P&L Tracking

# Snapshot: realized (from Simmer resolved API) + unrealized (open positions)
python scripts/spread_pnl.py

# Full history log
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --history

# Open positions detail
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --positions

Log appended to spread_pnl.log on each run. Cron-safe.

Files

spread_sniper.py        # Main bot — scan + entry + exit
config.json             # Runtime config overrides (takes precedence over env vars)
clawhub.json            # ClawHub + automaton config
scripts/
  spread_pnl.py         # P&L tracker (realized via Simmer API + unrealized)
  sim_redeem.py         # Redeem resolved SIM positions
spread_positions.json   # Local position journal
spread_daily.json       # Daily spend state
spread_pnl.log          # P&L snapshot log

Safety

• All credentials loaded from environment — no hardcoded secrets
• Daily spend cap prevents runaway deployment
• CLOB spread filter skips illiquid markets
• Price range filter (10%–90%) avoids near-certain / near-impossible positions
• Extensive keyword exclude list filters out esports, weather, and obscure football markets