Twitter Cross-Contagion Trader

This is a template.
The default signal detects cross-person posting correlation from market prices — remix it with real-time Twitter API monitoring, topic co-occurrence tracking, or network graph analysis of reply/quote-tweet chains.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Public figures don't post in isolation. When Elon Musk enters a political debate, Trump often responds on Truth Social. When crypto crashes, both CZ and Vitalik spike their posting rates.

Markets price each person's bins independently. This skill exploits the cross-person correlation that markets miss.

Signal Logic

Phase 1: Detect Contagion

Group all post-count bin markets by person
Compute each person's "heat" — are the market prices shifted toward higher bins?
Positive heat = market expects more posts than baseline (person is "hot")

Phase 2: Apply Contagion Coefficients

| Source | Target | Beta | Why | |--------|--------|------|-----| | Elon | Trump | 0.15 | Political overlap, mutual commentary | | Trump | Elon | 0.12 | Elon reacts to executive orders | | Elon | Vitalik | 0.08 | Crypto topic overlap | | Vitalik | Elon | 0.06 | Elon sometimes responds to ETH news | | Elon | CZ | 0.05 | Crypto/exchange overlap |

Phase 3: Trade with Adjusted Conviction

When person A is hot and beta(A->B) > 0, boost conviction on person B's higher bins.

Remix Ideas

Real-time monitoring: Track actual post counts in real-time instead of inferring from market prices
Reply chain analysis: @-mention graphs show direct contagion paths
Topic clustering: NLP on recent posts to detect shared topics driving correlation
Dynamic beta: Re-estimate contagion coefficients weekly from observed data

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Max position size | $40 USDC | Per market | | Min market volume | $1,000 | Standard filter | | Max bid-ask spread | 10% | Default threshold | | Min days to resolution | 0 | Post-count markets are short-lived | | Max open positions | 8 | Diversify across persons |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-cross-contagion-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 1000 | Min market volume filter (USD) | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until market resolves | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.