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ring:portfolio-planning

战略组合规划技能，用于多项目协调、能力评估和组合优化。为组合级别的决策提供框架。

person作者: jakexiaohubgithub
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Portfolio Planning Skill

Strategic portfolio planning for multi-project coordination and optimization.

Purpose

This skill provides a systematic approach to:

  • Assess current portfolio health
  • Evaluate strategic alignment
  • Plan portfolio composition
  • Optimize resource allocation across projects
  • Balance risk across portfolio

Prerequisites

Before starting portfolio planning, ensure:

| Prerequisite | Required For | Source | |--------------|--------------|--------| | Project list | Portfolio scope | Project registry | | Strategic objectives | Alignment scoring | Strategy documents | | Resource availability | Capacity planning | Resource planner | | Budget constraints | Financial planning | Finance team |

Portfolio Planning Gates

Gate 1: Portfolio Inventory

Objective: Create complete picture of current portfolio

Actions:

  1. List all active projects
  2. Capture status of each project
  3. Document resource allocations
  4. Identify dependencies

Output: docs/pmo/{date}/portfolio-inventory.md

Checklist:

  • [ ] All active projects listed
  • [ ] Status captured (Green/Yellow/Red)
  • [ ] Resources identified per project
  • [ ] Dependencies documented

Gate 2: Strategic Alignment Assessment

Objective: Evaluate how each project aligns with strategic objectives

Actions:

  1. Map projects to strategic objectives
  2. Score alignment (1-5 scale)
  3. Identify orphan projects (no strategic link)
  4. Flag misaligned projects

Alignment Scoring:

| Score | Meaning | |-------|---------| | 5 | Directly enables strategic objective | | 4 | Strongly supports strategic objective | | 3 | Moderately supports strategy | | 2 | Weak strategic connection | | 1 | No clear strategic value |

Output: docs/pmo/{date}/strategic-alignment.md

Gate 3: Capacity Assessment

Objective: Understand portfolio capacity constraints

Actions:

  1. Aggregate resource demand across projects
  2. Compare to available capacity
  3. Identify over/under allocation
  4. Document skill gaps

Dispatch: resource-planner for detailed analysis

Output: docs/pmo/{date}/capacity-assessment.md

Gate 4: Risk Portfolio View

Objective: Aggregate and correlate risks across portfolio

Actions:

  1. Collect project-level risks
  2. Identify correlated risks
  3. Assess portfolio risk exposure
  4. Plan portfolio-level mitigations

Dispatch: risk-analyst for detailed analysis

Output: docs/pmo/{date}/portfolio-risks.md

Gate 5: Portfolio Optimization

Objective: Recommend portfolio changes for optimal value delivery

Actions:

  1. Analyze portfolio balance (run/grow/transform)
  2. Identify optimization opportunities
  3. Recommend project prioritization
  4. Propose resource reallocation

Optimization Criteria:

| Criterion | Weight | Description | |-----------|--------|-------------| | Strategic value | 30% | Alignment with objectives | | Resource efficiency | 25% | Resource utilization optimization | | Risk balance | 20% | Portfolio risk distribution | | Dependencies | 15% | Dependency health | | Timeline | 10% | Schedule alignment |

Output: docs/pmo/{date}/portfolio-recommendations.md

Anti-Rationalization Table

See shared-patterns/anti-rationalization.md for universal anti-rationalizations.

Portfolio-Specific Anti-Rationalizations

| Rationalization | Why It's WRONG | Required Action | |-----------------|----------------|-----------------| | "We know our portfolio well" | Familiarity breeds blind spots. Fresh analysis required. | Complete full inventory | | "All projects are strategic" | If everything is strategic, nothing is. Differentiation required. | Score alignment objectively | | "Capacity is fine, teams said so" | Self-reported capacity often optimistic. Validation required. | Verify with utilization data | | "Risk aggregation is overkill" | Portfolio risk > sum of project risks. Correlation matters. | Aggregate and correlate risks |

Pressure Resistance

See shared-patterns/pressure-resistance.md for universal pressure scenarios.

Portfolio-Specific Pressures

| Pressure Type | Request | Agent Response | |---------------|---------|----------------| | "Just add this project, it's approved" | "Approval ≠ capacity. Portfolio impact assessment required before adding." | | "Don't question the strategic projects" | "All projects require alignment verification. No exemptions for labeled 'strategic' projects." | | "We don't have time for full planning" | "Incomplete planning causes downstream delays. Completing full planning cycle." |

Blocker Criteria - STOP and Report

ALWAYS pause and report blocker for:

| Situation | Required Action | |-----------|-----------------| | Portfolio capacity exceeded by >20% | STOP. Report overload. Wait for prioritization decision. | | Strategic objectives unclear | STOP. Cannot score alignment. Request strategy clarification. | | Resource data unavailable | STOP. Cannot assess capacity. Request resource information. | | Multiple high-risk projects correlated | STOP. Report compound risk. Wait for risk mitigation decision. |

Cannot Be Overridden

The following requirements are NON-NEGOTIABLE:

| Requirement | Cannot Override Because | |-------------|------------------------| | Complete portfolio inventory | Hidden projects distort capacity and priority | | Strategic alignment scoring | Unscored projects cannot be prioritized | | Capacity validation | Assumed capacity leads to overcommitment | | Risk aggregation | Portfolio risk > sum of project risks | | Stakeholder input | Decisions without stakeholder input fail adoption |

If user insists on violating these:

  1. Escalate to orchestrator
  2. Do NOT proceed with incomplete planning
  3. Document the request and your refusal

Severity Calibration

When assessing portfolio issues:

| Severity | Criteria | Examples | |----------|----------|----------| | CRITICAL | Portfolio viability at risk | >50% projects red, capacity exceeded by >30%, strategic misalignment | | HIGH | Significant portfolio impact | Multiple correlated risks, key project failing, major resource gaps | | MEDIUM | Optimization needed | Imbalanced portfolio, moderate resource pressure, minor misalignment | | LOW | Minor improvements possible | Process refinements, template improvements, minor optimization |

Report ALL severities. Escalate CRITICAL immediately. Address HIGH this week.

Output Format

Portfolio Status Summary

# Portfolio Status Summary - [Date]

## Portfolio Overview

| Metric | Value | Status |
|--------|-------|--------|
| Active Projects | N | - |
| Total Investment | $X | - |
| Capacity Utilization | X% | Green/Yellow/Red |
| Portfolio Risk Score | X/10 | Green/Yellow/Red |

## Strategic Alignment

| Objective | Projects | Coverage |
|-----------|----------|----------|
| [Objective 1] | [List] | X% |
| [Objective 2] | [List] | X% |

## Health Summary

| Status | Count | Projects |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Green | N | [List] |
| Yellow | N | [List] |
| Red | N | [List] |

## Recommendations

1. [Recommendation with rationale]
2. [Recommendation with rationale]

## Decisions Required

1. [Decision needed with options]
2. [Decision needed with options]

Execution Report

Base metrics per shared-patterns/execution-report.md:

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Analysis Date | YYYY-MM-DD | | Scope | [Portfolio name/scope] | | Duration | Xh Ym | | Result | COMPLETE/PARTIAL/BLOCKED |

Portfolio-Specific Details

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | projects_reviewed | N | | capacity_utilization | X% | | strategic_alignment_avg | X.X/5 | | recommendations_count | N |

When Portfolio Planning Is Not Needed

<MANDATORY> MUST: Portfolio planning is minimal only when ALL conditions are met: </MANDATORY>

| Condition | Verification | |-----------|-------------| | Recent planning exists (<30 days) | Reference existing portfolio plan | | No new projects proposed | Verify no intake requests pending | | No significant changes | Confirm no budget/resource/strategy changes | | All projects on track (Green) | Verify no Yellow/Red status |

MUST: Full portfolio planning REQUIRED for the following conditions:

| Condition | Why Required | |-----------|-------------| | New project intake request | Must assess impact on portfolio | | Quarterly/annual planning cycle | Regular planning cadence required | | Strategic objectives changed | Alignment must be re-assessed | | Resource constraints identified | Prioritization decisions needed | | Multiple projects Yellow/Red | Intervention and rebalancing required |

MUST: When in doubt, refresh the portfolio plan. Stale portfolio plans cause misaligned investments.